Saturday, January 5, 2008

THE YEAR OF THE RAT

The technology-focused Nasdaq fell for the sixth straight session and showed its steepest percentage decline since a market pullback on Feb. 27 last year. The Nasdaq declined 98.03, or 3.77 percent, to 2,504.65, in part after the downgrade of Intel, but also because its smaller-capitalization components are seen as more vulnerable in an economic slowdown.

The Dow fell 256.54, or 1.96 percent, to 12,800.18, while the S&P 500 index declined 35.53, or 2.46 percent, to 1,411.63.

It was the steepest point drop for the Dow and the S&P 500 since Dec. 11. In 2008, the Dow is off 3.5 percent and the S&P is down 3.86 percent.

A Federal Reserve announcement Friday that it is ramping up the amount of cash available to banks through a new auction process did little to calm the markets. After two auctions of $20 billion each, the Fed has now scheduled auctions Jan. 14 and Jan. 28 at $30 billion each.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies. Gold prices, which have risen to nearly 30-year highs in recent days, declined.

It's been a difficult start to 2008 on Wall Street, the year most analysts predict to be the make or break year for our economy. After selling off in the final session of last year on Monday, investors spent the first three sessions of the new year absorbing a weaker-than-expected reading on the manufacturing sector, oil that reached $100 a barrel and Friday's dismal employment numbers.

Dividend cuts or suspensions will continue to pick up among financial services firms in 2008, said Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's. In 2007, fewer companies increased dividends, according to Standard & Poor's, while more companies in 2007 than in 2006 actually cut or suspended dividends.

Many investors rely on dividend payments as a source of income, and financial institutions in particular have been rich sources of large payouts. Their need to raise capital in the face of rising loan defaults, though, has made their dividends one of the first places they look to save money.

Diane Merdian at Keefe Bruyette & Woods noted that banks, in general, are offering a dividend yield that is near an all-time high when measured against the dividend yield on the S&P 500. Yields are based on a company's full year of dividends compared to the current share price.

Higher yields indicate the company might be distributing more cash to investors than it can afford. Drastic dividends cuts or outright suspensions are likely steps if companies are struggling with earnings or other cash needs.

Since early July, credit markets have been in a free fall, mostly due to rising defaults on mortgages, especially subprime loans given to customers with poor credit history.

As a result of the rising defaults, investors have shied away from purchasing bonds and debt backed by the loans because of fears of mounting losses. As investors stopped buying the debt, banks and other holders of the bonds have been forced to write down their value.

The write-down - which eclipsed $100 billion in 2007 - have strained earnings, forcing companies to look for new ways to raise capital and preserve cash.

The Bush administration, faced with a deteriorating economy and a big jump in unemployment, said Friday it was considering an economic stimulus package that might include tax cuts to ward off a recession.

Officials stressed that President Bush has not decided yet to offer a proposal but was looking at a variety of options with a plan possibly being unveiled around the time of his Jan. 28 State of the Union address.

"The president is always looking at options ... always talking to people and looking at data," Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Bush met Friday with top economic officials including Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who are part of the president's working group on financial markets, a group formed after the 1987 stock market crash to monitor markets.

The president was given an assessment of how the economy is behaving and how financial markets are performing after the severe credit squeeze that hit in August. A number of big financial institutions have declared multibillion-dollar losses because of rising defaults in the subprime mortgage market.

White House spokesman Tony Fratto said tax cuts were an option being considered.

Bush in his first term included a tax refund of up to $300 per person to combat the impact of the 2001 recession. Private economists said another round of tax cuts would be the best approach to get money to people who would spend it.

The rest of the world is gloomily contemplating economic slowdown and even recession. Not in Beijing. China is set to make 2008 the year it asserts its status as a global colossus by flexing frightening economic muscle on international markets, enjoying unprecedented levels of domestic consumption and showcasing itself to a watching world with a glittering £20bn Olympic Games.

The world's most populous nation will mark the next 12 months with a coming-of-age party that will confirm its transformation in three decades from one of the poorest countries of the 20th century into the globe's third-largest economy, its hungriest (and most polluting) consumer and the engine room of economic growth.

Appropriately, 2008 marks the Year of the Rat, an animal considered in Chinese folklore to be a harbinger and protector of material prosperity.

Britain will feel the full power of the new superpower's confidence. This month, for the first time, China's state-controlled banks will begin spending some of its $1.33trn (£670bn) in foreign currency reserves on London's financial markets. Beijing has ruled that Britain should become only the second destination after Hong Kong to be allowed to receive investors' money via so-called "sovereign funds" – the huge state-controlled surpluses built up by cash-rich economies from Qatar to South Korea. Throw in the biggest round of Chinese art exhibitions ever to tour these islands and the oriental bias to 2008 becomes even more pronounced.

The UK has made it clear that Beijing's investment, which could reach as much as £45bn, is welcome and it follows the recent acquisition by Chinese banks of stakes in such blue chip stocks as Barclays and the US private equity firm Blackstone, at a cost of $3bn. The talk in the finance houses is that the label "Made in China" will soon be replaced by one reading "Owned by China". Takeover speculation has provoked concern in some quarters at the wisdom of selling large assets to organs of a democratically unaccountable state where the financial sector remains underdeveloped.

China's trade surplus with the rest of the world will widen from £130bn in 2007 to £145bn this year as it tries to tame its burgeoning economy amid pressure from Washington and Brussels to narrow the trade gap and raise its currency's value.

Stephen Perry, chairman of the 48 Group Club, a Sino-British business network, said: "China has become an international player much more quickly than it would have wanted to do, in part to meet its need for natural resources. But I don't think China has any intention of taking on American power. The West is important to China in this stage of its development as it seeks inward investment. But that is beginning to be much less important and it is looking more to the development of a strong Asia, in which it is one of the strongest players because of its enormous consumer base."

But while some may question Beijing's political motives, there is no doubt that China has arrived as serious power-broker. Last year, it surpassed America as the greatest driver of global economic demand. It is also widely predicted to overtake Germany as the world's third largest economy this year.

While nearly all of its success since Premier Deng Xiaoping began China's economic transformation in 1978 has been driven by producing goods for the outside world, the country has a burgeoning urban middle-class whose insatiable appetite for consumer durables is hoped to put the economy on a more stable footing.

The arrival of conspicuous consumption and entry of Shanghai's sovereign funds into foreign investment markets, with London soon expected to be followed by the US, is symptomatic of a China increasingly willing to assert itself as a political and cultural influence, according to experts.

From global warming to Darfur and North Korea, the views of Beijing and its willingness to act have become prerequisites to any solution to the world's most pressing problems.

The Chinese New Year on 7 February will herald the beginning of the largest-ever festival of China's culture in Britain with an accent on contemporary artists in fields from video art to neon signs. But others warn 2008 has as much potential to be a disaster as a triumph for Beijing's attempts to herald its own arrival on the world stage. The Chinese capital will host 31,000 journalists for the Olympics and any sign of protest or an attempt to quell dissent with violence would be catastrophic.

The drum beat of protectionism is already sounding in America and will only get louder in a presidential election year, putting pressure on both Republican and Democratic candidates to take a "strong" stance on China. In the meantime, Beijing will have to grapple with issues from rising inflation to Taiwan, which holds presidential elections in March, to its status as the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide and likely role as the largest consumer of primary energy resources.

Important contributions from the AP and ICH.

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